Daily Gusto: Stop and Watch the Run for the Roses

May 1, 2004

Stop and Watch the Run for the Roses

It's Kentucky Derby day! Eighteen of the greatest athletes in the world are gathered in Louisville to begin the race for the Triple Crown. The fact that these athletes are of a different species and carry little midgets on their backs makes it all the more bizarre and compelling.

This year it's any horse's race. There are no clear favorites and every horse has its own story. Most handicappers are betting that the classic pedigree of The Cliff's Edge will make him the horse to beat. TCE loves the track at Churchill Downs and is coming off a victory at the Blue Grass Stakes. But this horse has attitude and was underwhelming in his practice runs on a muddy track earlier in the week. So we're betting that he'll flake out, and we're going to pass on the obvious choice (which won't come in at great odds, anyway).

The biggest factor today is a wet racetrack. It rained a bit yesterday, and it's probably going to rain again today. And it's very simple: some horses like mud, some don't. So here's my completely amateurish money-down-the-drain call on who you should bet for when Derby-goers put up their umbrellas:

1. Pollard's Vision
This horse is coming off the best Beyer Speed stat of his life (107), and there's nothing to indicate he can't replicate it. He won the Illinois Derby by three lengths and still had oomph. He performs great in the mud and has the highest Tomlinson number in the field, which is a stat that measures a horse's ability to handle a wet track. The problem is that Pollard's Vision has done well under lesser competition, but has never raced the best horses of his generation. No one's picking this horse, and it's a real long shot -- but with a huge payoff. If conditions are right, PV will pull it off.

2. Smarty Jones
The Cinderella Story of today's lineup comes to Lexington undefeated after beating several of the horses he's competing against today. Yet because he lacks the classic pedigree, handicappers are avoiding him a bit. His last win in the Arkansas Derby was on a muddy track, and he's going onto Lasix for the first time. This horse has been blazing through warmups at Churchill.

3. Borrego
This horse came in second to Smarty Jones at the Arkansas Derby and I predict he'll be looking at the same horse's ass here. He loves the slop and was gaining on SJ in what was a shorter track by 1/8 of a mile. If Smarty Jones' workouts were a bit *too* vigorous, it's possible that this horse will best him.

The 130th running of the Kentucky Derby will be broadcast live from Churchill Downs on NBC today at 6:05pm.

Posted by harry at May 1, 2004 11:30 AM | TrackBack

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I put $5 on each of the three horses to win, and then bet $5 on the trifecta, which means that each horse would have to finish as I bet. Smarty Jones won at 5 to 1, which means I spent $20 and made $25. Not a big victory, but at least I made my money back with a little to spare. If only I had a financial backer I could turn this miniscule profit into a career! Any takers?

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